10.12.2010 | 16:00

    

When making forecasts for plastic window market, independent marketing center О.К.N.А. Маrketing and ОКNА МЕDIА portal analyze both external factors, which could affect Russian economy as a whole, and internal factors, which could affect separate target sectors. Each forecast is made in accordance with classic theory of forecasting, which provides for 3 possible scenarios supplied with percentage realization probability. Forecasts will be quarterly reconsidered and corrected if necessary.

                              Possible scenarios of plastic window market development in 2011

                                                                     Russia, million sq.m, %

After recent recession macro factors came to the foreground, as they have the largest influence on the situation in Russian economy, and consequently on the market of plastic windows.

During 2010 the market of plastic windows developed by optimistic scenario. The reason for this can be restoration of macro economic indexes because of replenishment of world economy with additional money supply (for example, only in USA there were issued 1 trillion USD to restore economy), which gave an impulse for restoration of consumer demand.

However, on more detailed analysis it turns out that situation in world economy was again changed in the middle of 2010. Beginning from July, 2010 the growth rates of both American and world economies began to slow down, as money «inflow» was finished. Also, it can be explained by a number of anti-crisis measures, adopted by governments of different countries. The countries of EU went by the way of reduction of state debts and limiting budget deficiencies. As to USA, there were passed the law increasing control over banks in the area of financial derivatives, hedge funds, SMB support, etc. But all these actions didn’t give the expected effect. As a result, by September, 2010 global economy was again on decline. And accordingly for Russia it meant decrease in world demand for energy resources and raw materials.

Consequently, the authorities of USA decided to issue new dollars to stimulate the economy of their country, which in its turn can stimulate global economy. On November 2, 2010 Federal Reserve System made a decision to issue another 600 billion USD during the next half year (in 2008-2009 there were already issued 1 trillion dollars). This will be the primary factor of development of both Russian and world economy.

Providing that these measures give a new impulse for growth of global economy, emerging new «credit» or «raw material» bubbles, all this may also have some effect on window market of Russia:

1. Prerequisites for market growth will be retained in 2011: in 2010 the market didn’t reach the levels of 2008, so there is still unsatisfied delayed demand;
2. About 70% of population still have unsatisfied demand for energy-saving windows;
3. Social expenses will be raised in the following pre-election year of 2011;
4. In 2010 unemployment was reduced from 8,8% to 6,8% of able-bodies population, and, considering the growth of economy, will continue to decrease;
5. Subject to the last decision of FRS lending sector will continue to develop and  «swell out»;
5. So far construction sector won't have no appreciable effect, though it will soon begin to gradually restore;
6. Sector of major or capital repairs will grow in 2011, as HCS Foundation will be extended by a year;

As a result, based on analysis of all these external and internal factors, О.К.N.А. Маrketing offers 3 scenarios of market development in 2011:

Possible  scenarios,                2011	Growth, %	Description	Probability
Medium scenario	20 %	In case if 600 billion USD won't led to expected revival of world economy, but only let it «to float» and not to be covered by another wave of recession. In this event global economy will still have debt issues, causing public tension.	55 %
Optimistic scenario	40 %	In case if 600 billion USD will give a new impulse for growth of world economy and swell-out of another ‘bubbles’ (raw materials, stock exchange, lending sector). There will also appear first results of energy efficiency law.	25 %
Pessimistic  scenario	-10 %	In case if new problem assets will come to light in major countries of Europe, which might cause restructuring of EU. The mint launched by USA will led new currency wars. Large banks won't be able to carry out their obligations – «new wave of liquidity crisis.»	20 %

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