09.06.2010 | 18:00

    

At the end of 2009 marketing center О.К.N.А. Маrketing and ОКNА МЕDIА portal forecasted the growth of fine windows and surrounds market in 2010, where they stuck to the medium scenario, according to which the market growth must be about 5%. However, situation was somewhat changed and so did the factors influencing the market. As a result, here is corrected forecast for this year.

According to the theory of economic forecasting, there are three basic development scenarios: optimistic, medium and pessimistic. As any other market, the market of plastic windows has its own dynamics of development which is due to seasonality and other factors. Therefore, let's sum the results of the 1st quarter and make quarterly forecasts for 2010.

First quarter

According to marketing center О.К.N.А. Маrketing and ОКNА МЕDIА portal, market of PVC constructions was reduced 10% in the first quarter of 2010, comparing with same period of 2009. The first quarter followed nearly pessimistic scenario because of the longest and coldest winter in the last 30 year (meteorological data). So, the sales began to grow only in March.

Second quarter

Because of significant delayed demand for windows, after the warming pessimistic scenario by the end of the first changed to medium scenario, and then, in the second quarter, to optimistic scenario, which led to increase in consumer demand. For 5 months of 2010 the growth of plastic window market amounted to about 9-10%.

Against the background of recovery of economic indexes in Russia after the first wave of crisis (end of 2009 and beginning of 2010), the growth of plastic window market is influenced by the following factors:

• delayed window demand of 2009, which is due to economic recession;
• cold winter, inducing to replace windows;
• adoption of energy efficiency law and implementation of energy-saving programs (major repairs and social window replacement projects);
• resumption of certain «frozen» building projects.

The second quarter could be considered most successful period for the market of plastic windows, as its growth amounted to 11%.

However, probability of optimistic scenario is very low in June.

Third quarter

According to statistic data, most active sales of plastic window generally fall just on the third quarter. Most likely, the plastic window market will continue to follow nearly optimistic scenario, in which case its growth for three quarters of 2010 will constitute approximately 15%, comparing with the same period of 2009.

Meanwhile, you mustn’t exclude the possibility that the positive trend, which began to show in global economy, may again change to negative one. Situation in both global economy and European zone indicates that the problems of private corporations, which was a characteristic feature of the 1st wave of crisis, is followed by the problems of the entire countries with large state debts, the very structure of crisis has changed. And while major private corporations were saved by the powers, who is going to save the powers themselves, whose debts often exceed GDP. There is only one answer – other countries. Here is the main point of disagreement among the countries of EU. «Mésalliance» of the countries of EU and problems with state debts which currently appear in such countries as Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy – is a time-bomb, which can go off anytime and lead to the second wave of crisis.

Russia can be immediately affected by the problems of EU, as Europe is the primary buyer of our energy sources. USA situation is also unstable. Global economy is still in very shaky position which can give rise to new problems in case if new «bad» debts have «surfaced».

All this can lead to the second wave of crisis already in the 3rd quarter, in which case plastic window market will begin to decrease again, in which case the growth for three quarters will constitute approximately 1-4% depending on the time of coming and force of negative factors.

Fourth quarter and forecast for 2010

Taking into account complicated global economic situation and Russian involvement in world economic relationships (as we still have raw-material-intensive economy which is dependable on world prices of natural resources, plus negative effects of huge debts of state corporations), it is likely that in autumn optimistic scenario will first change to medium and then to pessimistic one.

As a result, according to marketing center О.К.N.А. Marketing and ОКNА МЕDIА portal, growth of PVC construction market will amount 10% in 2010, because of likelihood of degradation of world economic indices in the 4th quarter of 2010 (second wave of crisis).

If this degradation occurs in summer (July, August), the growth of PVC construction market will constitute approximately -3-5% in 2010, which can be considered as pessimistic scenario.

Also, you must take into account the optimistic scenario, if «speculative bubbles» won't collapse in 2010, in which case the growth of PVC construction market will constitute approximately 20% in 2010.

Forecast for growth of plastic window market based on three scenarios
Russia, 2010, million sq.m.

Possible scenarios, 2010

Possible scenario	Growth,  %	Description	Probability
Optimistic scenario	10%	Subject to climatic factor and delayed demand of 2009. In case if dynamics having begun to take shape in 2010 will continue, and speculative bubbles will start to collapse in the 4th quarter.	55%
Medium scenario	20%	In case if speculative bubble won't collapse, and will grow even more intensively and there will appear the first effects of energy efficiency law.	35%
Pessimistic scenario	-3-5%	Provided that degradation will come no later than in June or July of 2010. The scenario is possible in case of collapsing another speculative bubble, rouble devaluation, oil prices falling and requirements to repay debts of state corporation.	10%

In any case, window companies must be prepared for all the three scenarios in order to be able to move anytime to this or that positions with less losses. As deficiencies, in case of optimistic scenario, may lead to equally negative consequences, as in case of pessimistic scenario, – to waste of resources.